2005 Quilceda Creek Allocation - What to Buy

Orders for the 2005 Quilceda Creek are due by January 7th. Recent years have been very favorable to Quilceda Creek, with the following advocate scores: 2001, 98 pts; 2002 and 2003, 100 pts, 2004, 99 pts. If you still haven't decided what (if any) of it you want, here's my analysis. The magnum of Cabernet at $253 is a screaming buy. Current auction ranges of the '01, '02, '03, and '04 magnums are $300-$500, $650-$850, $650-$950, and $300-$450 respectively. Someone pre-sold their '05 cabernet magnum on winecommune for $420 recently. The risk in the '05 Quilceda Creeks comes from the fact that they are not rated yet. You can hope for a 100 point score from the Wine Advocate, or sell yours on winecommune before the wine is reviewed. If you only buy one part of your allocation, it should be the cabernet magnum.

The cabernet 750 ml bottles are compelling as well, although they appear to offer less upside potential. Current auction ranges of the '01, '02, '03, and '04 in regular bottles are $150-$250, $250-$280, $220-$280, and $140-$315 respectively. The '05 cabernet in regular bottle recently pre-sold on winecommune for $166. At $115 (allocation price) I bought it, but I like the magnum better. Both offerings appear to be only barely prifitable at 98 pts. A 100 point score would make the magnum saleable at 260% of its release price, while the regular bottles would apear to be worth about 190% of their release price.

The merlot, at $75, is probably cheaper than it would be on the secondary market, but I just don't see the same potential as with their cabs. I didn't buy it.

Do I still think the wine market is overpriced? Yes, at the high end -I'm still predicting drops in '08 for DRC, Petrus, and anything that can't be bought new for $2000. But the deep pocketed consumers won't quit the wine game altogether. They'll be drinking the more "affordable" Quilceda Creeks instead.