2009 Futo Allocation

The 2009 Futo allocation is announced.  The deadline for buying your allocation is February 21st.  The wine got 96 points from Wine Advocate (WA), and is sold by allocation for $225.  By the time you pay local sales tax and shipping, expect your cost to be around $250.  If you sell, expect to by clipped for 20% auction house fees, so a final price of $300 is what you will need to break even.  You will also need to pay to have the wine shipped to the auction house.

Does this make sense?  For the 2004 vintage, (RP 96, first vintage) the lowest ask on wine-searcher is $300.  The 2007 Futo (RP 98) is also a $300+ wine.  All the other Futo vintages scored either 95 or 95+, and it appears that all can presently be bought for under $250.  It is worth noting, that the cheaper vintages (2005, 2006, and 2008) all appear to be in low supply at the sub-$250 level; there are many more offers above $300.  Buying the 2009 Futo to flip immediately does not make much sense.  I would expect to come close to breaking even.

However, a speculator might be willing to take a small loss on the 2009 vintage to ensure an allocation for the potentially better scoring (WA 95-98) 2010 vintage.  Alternatively, the 2009 Futo can be held for a few years.  Futo is very close to greatness.  If it can pull off a couple of 100 point vintages in the future, it could very well push all older vintages up to the next price level.  Futo has never earned less than 95 points from the WA, and annual production is only around 1000 cases.  My recommendation is to buy.

Why Futo is a Buy

This month, about 800 lucky individuals were given the opportunity to buy 3-bottle cases of Futo, the new cult-wannabe from CA, for merely $600. Yes it costs too much. A good friend of mine, who has been on the Sreaming Eagle allocation list (and others) since inception, confided in me that "almost none of these wines are worth what you pay for them."

I bought it, because the speculator in me thinks that this wine is a good bet - to rise in value. The wine has not been reviewed yet, so the true market price is anyone's guess. But how bad does it have to be to stay at $200? The makers of Futo, Abreu and Aubert, both have impressive track records - and they have experience making wine together. Consider their last joint venture, Sloan, had a 92+ (RP) for their premier vintage (2000) today's price: $255. Now, I need to assess what are the odds that Futo (2005) can beat 92+? The winemakers have 5 years more experience than when they made Slaon, and the vineyard is next to Harlan. It could be a bust, but I'm in.