Scarecrow Introduces M. Ètain

In an email to allocation members, Scarecrow announced a new wine called M. Ètain for 2008. Is this a luxury cuvee, or a second wine? Probably the latter. The email describes:

“The portion of juice that wasn’t included in the final Scarecrow blend was so undeniably superb that we were inspired to bottle it...M. Étain 2008, a stunning Cabernet Sauvignon which charmingly displays a perfect balance between power and elegance.”

The email goes on to say that M. Ètain won’t necessarily be offered every year. To me, it sounds like a second wine, with limited availability.

Should you buy it?

Scarecrow is coming from a big success with its 2007 offering, but consider that 2008 was a difficult year for Napa. The 2008 Scarecrow has a Parker score of (92-94), the lowest of any Scarecrow, and the 2008 M. Ètain is still unrated -and unpriced. This year’s 2008 M. Ètain offering might be fun for collectors and consumers, but it is unlikely to be worthwhile for speculators. I expect the best juice went into the 2008 Scarecrow.

2007 Scarecrow

The 2007 Scarecrow (100 RP) is offered at $225, a hefty 28% increase over the 2006 release price of $175. If you get an allocation, buy it, but do the math first.

If you don't drive to the winery and pick it up yourself, you probably need to get your wine shipped to 55 Degrees (a California based wine storage facility), where your wine will be held until safe wine shipping temperatures prevail in both California and your home state. 55 Degrees makes its money by renting you a wine storage locker, so you can expect to wait the better part of a year before your wine gets to you. For your 3-bottle allocation, plan on $112 in wine storage fees, $37 in CA sales tax (which you must pay, since delivery to 55 Degrees is in CA), and $60 in shipping and shipping tax to 55 Degrees by FedEx 2nd day service. You'll pay more to have it shipped to you.

Your $225 bottle is now over $300. If you sell at auction, the auction house will clip you 15-20%, plus you'll have to pay again to ship your wine to the auction house. To break even, the hammer price plus premium must be over $350. Will your 100 point 2007 Scarecrow be profitable? Probably (pre-sales on Winecommune.com are around $500), but you'll want to think hard about future allocations at these prices. Here's a list of past vintages by score and market price:

2003 RP98, $700
2004 RP95, $445
2005 RP96, $395
2006 RP94+, $379

Scarecrow is no longer the no-brainer it was a few years ago, when a $100 bottle could be flipped at auction for $800. Unless Scarecrow drops their prices (or begins direct shipping to the consumer), it appears that future vintages with Advocate scores under 95 will be too expensive for speculators.

2006 Scarecrow

Scarecrow has a reasonably priced allocation this year at $175/bottle. Buy it, if you are on the list.

This wine has the advantage of having been rated by Parker, so we're not buying something completely unknown. The 2006 earned 94+, which is Parker's lowest score for any Scarecrow, but with the 95 point 2005 retailing at $400, you're probably safe paying $175 for the 94+.

If you plan to flip this one, then I recommend doing so quickly. The 2005 Scarecrow has fallen substantially from the $620-$650 level seen in March 2008.

Be ready at midnight on March 21st to claim yours.

Scarecrow!

Scarecrow from the 2005 vintage is available March 21st-31st at $150/bottle. Buy your entire allocation.

The 2003 vintage received 98 points from RP, the highest score that Parker has given for any inaugural vintage. Released to a lucky few at $100/bottle, the wine was trading at $800 as soon as the Wine Advocate's review was in in the mail. Today, this wine is at least $900.

The 2004 vintage got (only) 95 pts from RP, but the damage from the first year's success could not be undone. The cheapest retailer on wine-searcher.com offers the 2004 Scarecrow at $700, but as with the 2003, there is no shortage of merchants willing to charge $1000.

The 2005 vintage isn't bottled yet, but Parker gave it 94-97 from the barrel. Pre-sales on winecomune.com are the cheapest at $620-$650. A brick-and-mortar wine merchant will charge more. I'm not buying much wine right now, but '05 Scarecrow at $150 gets me reaching for my checkbook.