Chateau Mouton Rothschild - 1982-2010 QPR

Which vintage of Chateau Mouton Rothschild offers the best quality to price ratio (QPR)?  I looked at the modern vintages first:  2010 received 97 points from Wine Advocate (WA) and is available for future delivery at $700 (Premier Cru).  2009 is WA 99 and can be bought today for $900 (Gary's Wine Marketplace).  It seemed that the market values modern great vintages of Mouton at $100 per WA point above 90.  To if the pattern persisted with older vintages, I made a table of the top 8 vintages back to 1982:

Vintage	Points	Price	Cost/Point over 90
2010	97	$700	$100
2009	99	$900	$100
2005	96	$500	$83
2003	95	$400	$80
2000	96	$1150	$192
1996	94	$400	$100
1986	100	$750	$75
1982	100	$1000	$100

For my money, the 1986 is the wine to buy.  In absolute terms, it is cheaper than the 2000 and the 2009, both of which have lower scores.  In relative terms, its cost per point is lower than any of the recent great vintages.

The 1986 Mouton Rothschild was not always a $750 wine.  It traded at around $1000/bottle both in 2007 and 2011, so there is precedent for higher prices.  I would expect prices on the older vintages to rise when the current group of 2009s and 2010s have been sold.

2005 Bordeaux First Growths

Wine investors speculating in the 2005 Bordeaux first growths should consider the 2005 Mouton Rothschild.

First, the range of scores for these wines is not big. Parker scored them all in the range of 96-98+, so the price differences are not representative of relative quality.

The following chart shows today's pricing of the 2005 First Growths compared to their prices as futures in the summer of '06:

Wine..............Futures Price/Current Price ..... % Change

Mouton.................... $575/$570....................... -0.08%

Latour...................... $765/$980....................... +28%

Haut Brion............... $626/$660........................ +5%

Margaux.................. $712/$830........................ +16%

Lafite........................ $604/$1200..................... +99%

Over a long enough time span, inflation, diminishing supply, and a long window of maturity should be expected to drive all the 2005 first growth Bordeaux to higher prices. However, buyers of Latour, Lafite, and Margaux appear to be premature, and I would expect these wines to be at risk for a correction.

While Haut Brion may also appear to be poised for growth, anyone willing to pay $660 for a Haut Brion should have a close look at the 1990, or the 2000, both of which trade for around $600 at auction, and have a much lower supply, because we've been drinking them up.

The 2005 Mouton, in contrast, has not budged in price in the last three years. Older vintages (like the 2000 - $840) actually cost more, which is what a speculator would expect. It may be the first of the 2005 first growths to move higher from present levels.

1982 Mouton Rothschild - Auction Prices

I admit, I thought the great wine correction was going to take place in 1Q 2008, and it has taken until now for the data to support the ongoing correction.

The wine market is breaking down, but the data is hidden. My analysis of 1982 Mouton shows that single bottles are off 20% from a year ago, but market averaged data shows no change. The most often cited data averages in all bottles regardless of provenance or owc status. The facts are that an owc of '82 Mouton has stayed the same, because the ultra-rich can still pay $17,000 for a case. Smaller speculators who trade in one and two bottle lots have been getting crushed, and the data is getting buried. When a single bottle sells as lot #1, and case sells as lot#2, the single bottle becomes 1/13th of the "average auction price" -even though it represents 1/2 of all actual sales.

Here are the prices for 1982 Mouton:
2Q '08 = $950 (single bottle), $1450 (x12 for owc)
3Q '07 = $1200(single bottle), $1500 (x12 for owc)

My data includes sales from Sotheby's, Bonham's, Hart Davis Hart, Zachy's, and Acker.