William Fevre Chablis

William Fevre Chablis is a good value for drinking at current prices. If you are tempted to speculate, go for Les Clos.

The 2004-2005 Fevre Chablis tend to be available for around $40/bottle for a premier cru, and $60/bottle for a Grand Cru, and $80/bottle for Les Clos. Patient speculators can find these wines at auction for $10-$20 lower than these prices.

I like Fevre Chablis for three reasons:
1. It tastes like a wine that costs 50% more.
2. The wines are well made. I have never had a Fevre tainted by premature oxidation.
3. Prices of the 2002, 2004, and 2005 Fevre Les Clos actually rose by about $25/bottle during the 2007-2010 time period, a time when most non-blue chip wines fell or barely maintained their value.

Is Chablis worthy of investment? Mostly not, although owners of Raveneau did well with the '02 vintage Grands Crus. Fevre's Les Clos could similarly beat the odds and make the jump to $120+ over the next few years.

Expect Discounts on Blue Chip Wines

Yesterday's massive US stock market drop has been attributed to a trader error, in which "billion" was substituted for "million". That may make us feel better in the short term, but look to the Asian markets to predict the next move in the wine market.

Investment grade wines, especially first growth Bordeaux, have experienced a dramatic turnaraound since the crash of 2008-2009. A closer look at the Bordeaux market reveals that this recovery comes from Asian demand.

http://www.decanter.com/news/293682.html

http://www.lovethatwine.co.uk/blog/bordeaux-gets-boost-asian-demand

http://www.winespectator.com/webfeature/show/id/42409

But Asia is now undergoing a massive stock market correction, with the Hong Kong stock market down 11% over the last three weeks. Couple this bad news with the well-known fact that the Chinese real estate bubble has yet to burst ....

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/05/business/global/05yuan.html

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35056774/Jim_Chanos_China_s_Real_Estate_Bubble_Is_Unprecedented

http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/15/news/economy/china_bubble/

... and we have the perfect storm brewing for investment grade wines.

For wine speculators, I recommend waiting for the correction before establishing any new positions in the following: Lafite, Latour, Margaux, Mouton, Ausone, Haut Brion, La Mission Haut Brion, Cheval Blanc, Petrus, or anything DRC. Look for these prices to fall as the Asian markets correct.