Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Chateau Mouton Rothschild - 1982-2010 QPR

Which vintage of Chateau Mouton Rothschild offers the best quality to price ratio (QPR)?  I looked at the modern vintages first:  2010 received 97 points from Wine Advocate (WA) and is available for future delivery at $700 (Premier Cru).  2009 is WA 99 and can be bought today for $900 (Gary's Wine Marketplace).  It seemed that the market values modern great vintages of Mouton at $100 per WA point above 90.  To if the pattern persisted with older vintages, I made a table of the top 8 vintages back to 1982:


Vintage Points Price Cost/Point over 90
2010 97 $700 $100
2009 99 $900 $100
2005 96 $500 $83
2003 95 $400 $80
2000 96 $1150 $192
1996 94 $400 $100
1986 100 $750 $75
1982 100 $1000 $100

For my money, the 1986 is the wine to buy.  In absolute terms, it is cheaper than the 2000 and the 2009, both of which have lower scores.  In relative terms, its cost per point is lower than any of the recent great vintages.

The 1986 Mouton Rothschild was not always a $750 wine.  It traded at around $1000/bottle both in 2007 and 2011, so there is precedent for higher prices.  I would expect prices on the older vintages to rise when the current group of 2009s and 2010s have been sold.


Thursday, August 22, 2013

2011 Sine Qua Non Dark Blossom Allocation

Sine Qua Non's August 2013 allocation is for six Syrah and three Grenache, all named "Dark Blossom".  Buy your entire allocation.

Antonio Galloni gave the Syrah (95-97) points from barrel, and the Grenache (94-96).  Prices have ticked up slightly to $160/bottle.  Don't forget to include shipping and local taxes when calculating your final price.  If you pay 8% local wine tax (California's rate is 8.2%), then your cost is $173.  Shipping will probably cost you about $10/bottle, so your final price to drink these is about $180-$185.

If you want to sell some to pay for the one you drink, then you are probably in for an uphill battle.  If the Wine Advocate confirms the Galloni ratings, then private party sales are probably your best bet - and it may take several years to get your money back.  For example, Sine Qua Non's 2008 Syrah, B-20 got 95 points from the Advocate, and can be purchased today for $220 (wine-searcher).  If you sell through a traditional auction house which takes 20% of all sales, a final price of $222 returns your $185.  A final price of $235 would also cover your cost to ship the wine to the auction house.  A wine-commune pre-arrival offering of Dark Blossom at $285 went unsold.

If the 2011 Sine Qua Non Dark Blossom gets a better Advocate review, like 99 or 100, then higher prices would be expected.  A final auction price of $252 will return $210 to the seller.  Make it $260, if you want to pay for your cost to ship the wine to the auctioneer.  Prices like this are supported by past offerings, such as the 2005 Atlantis series, in which the 100 point Syrah is $260-$300 on the secondary market.

Even if the 2011 Dark Blossom offerings turn out to be "only" 95-96 points, it is still worth it for a wine speculator to buy these and stay on the allocation list.  Sine Qua Non has a strong track record and is a good bet to release more 100 point wines in the future.

Note:  This post was updated on 9/5/2013 to correct errors in the release price.