2009 Sine Qua Non Allocation

September 2 is the deadline for reserving your 2009 Sine Qua Non allocation.  This year’s offerings are 6 x 2009 Syrah “The Thrill of …” (RP 96-98) and 6 x 2009 Grenache “Upside Down” (RP 94-96).  Grenache fans will appreciate the increased Grenache offering, which is often about half the Syrah availability.

If you are buying these to drink, the release price of $145 compares favorably with the $250+ typical auction price.

If you are buying these to flip, Parker’s sub 100 point ratings will keep these wines from getting much higher than $250 in the near term.  Auction house fees of 22%, together with shipping fees, plus state tax fees will drive all the profit from re-sale.  A profitless re-sale of Sine Qua Non is perfectly acceptable for speculators who want to remain on the allocation list, saving their dry powder for either a better vintage, or an Eleven Confessions offering.  Bottom line: buy your entire allocation.

1994 Bordeaux First Growths - a Time to Sell

If you're still waiting for these to come around, they won't.  The 1994 Bordeaux first growths peaked from 2000-2004.  Look at the 2011 auction prices and cash in.

1994 Mouton ......$350-$400
1994 Lafite..........$1008-1321
1994 Haut Brion..$300-$400
1994 Latour.........$350-$600
1994 Margaux......$300-$500

Price ranges are for the first half of 2011.  Recent prices (April, May, and June auctions) show all these wines are at or above $400/bottle.  The 5-year price charts on wine-prices.com show all of the 1994 Bordeaux first growths going vertical now, after spending the last decade at or under $200/bottle.

In 2004, I sampled all the 1994 Bordeaux first growths, and I was impressed.  Many tasted quite good, and all could be had for $125/bottle or less.  I bought about 10, from different chateaux, and waited.  As the years went by, I pulled them out proudly for guests and family.  One was austere, another was bitter, a third was closed, and a fourth was past its peak.  Seven years later, I get it; these wines are not closed.  They are amber, austere, and fruitless.  They peaked, and another decade in the cellar is not worth the wait.  At these prices, they're not worth keeping.

2007 Sloan Allocation

Anyone still on the list for Sloan may want to consider taking their 2007 allocation. Like many Napa 2007s, Sloan earned 100 points from RP. With local tax and shipping, expect to be on the hook for about $360/bottle. If you want to sell, consider that the typical auction house fee of about 20% means that the market needs to value 2007 Sloan at $450 for a speculator to break even.

Typical vintages of Sloan get 96-98 points from Parker, and price on the secondary market is highly sensitive to very small variations in Parker's rating. The 2003-2005 vintages got 96 points, and their resale value is in the $225-$300 range. The 98-point wines from 2001 and 2006 seldom trade under $350, and $400 is a typical retail price for the 2006. The only other 100-point from Sloan, the 2002 is a $500 bottle (sometimes higher, rarely lower).

Finally, recognize that large variations in auction price can be the result of selling a couple of odd bottles vs an original wooden case (six bottles in the case of Sloan). The wine market volatility of the past couple of years hurt small speculators disproportionately. As I described here, with the example of 1982 Mouton, sellers of an owc get plenty of protection in a falling market; plan accordingly.