The 2007 Scarecrow (100 RP) is offered at $225, a hefty 28% increase over the 2006 release price of $175. If you get an allocation, buy it, but do the math first.
If you don't drive to the winery and pick it up yourself, you probably need to get your wine shipped to 55 Degrees (a California based wine storage facility), where your wine will be held until safe wine shipping temperatures prevail in both California and your home state. 55 Degrees makes its money by renting you a wine storage locker, so you can expect to wait the better part of a year before your wine gets to you. For your 3-bottle allocation, plan on $112 in wine storage fees, $37 in CA sales tax (which you must pay, since delivery to 55 Degrees is in CA), and $60 in shipping and shipping tax to 55 Degrees by FedEx 2nd day service. You'll pay more to have it shipped to you.
Your $225 bottle is now over $300. If you sell at auction, the auction house will clip you 15-20%, plus you'll have to pay again to ship your wine to the auction house. To break even, the hammer price plus premium must be over $350. Will your 100 point 2007 Scarecrow be profitable? Probably (pre-sales on Winecommune.com are around $500), but you'll want to think hard about future allocations at these prices. Here's a list of past vintages by score and market price:
2003 RP98, $700
2004 RP95, $445
2005 RP96, $395
2006 RP94+, $379
Scarecrow is no longer the no-brainer it was a few years ago, when a $100 bottle could be flipped at auction for $800. Unless Scarecrow drops their prices (or begins direct shipping to the consumer), it appears that future vintages with Advocate scores under 95 will be too expensive for speculators.
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