2006 Scarecrow

Scarecrow has a reasonably priced allocation this year at $175/bottle. Buy it, if you are on the list.

This wine has the advantage of having been rated by Parker, so we're not buying something completely unknown. The 2006 earned 94+, which is Parker's lowest score for any Scarecrow, but with the 95 point 2005 retailing at $400, you're probably safe paying $175 for the 94+.

If you plan to flip this one, then I recommend doing so quickly. The 2005 Scarecrow has fallen substantially from the $620-$650 level seen in March 2008.

Be ready at midnight on March 21st to claim yours.

2006 Screaming Eagle Allocation

The 2006 Screaming Eagle allocations are available - for $750 a bottle.

The rules are changing, and the top CA cults are no longer an automated buy. See my Sloan post for an example of one to skip.

If you're fortunate enough to be on the list, you probably still want this one. After adding item tax, shipping, and shipping tax, my 3 bottles came to $2507. This is $835 delivered. An auction house will take 20% of the hammer price, so 2006 Screaming Eagle needs to fall below $1002, for you to loose money on this.

Longtime members of the Screaming Eagle allocation club will remember the 2003 offered at the (then) outrageous price of $500. That seems like a gift now, and for wine speculators, it was.

You can cut the auction premium to as little as 10%, if you use a discount auctioneer like JJ Buckley, who will auction it online with no reserve. For most wines, it still won't be worth it. But 10% on a Screaming Eagle is actually worth capturing. Plus, demand is still high enough for Screaming eagle to sell at a reasonable price on an internet auction. I wouldn't try this with most other $1000+ wines, like a 1985 Henri Jayer Echezeaux, for instance. The Jayer market is too thin to trust it to a no-reserve online auction.

Earth to Sloan.....

In spite of the raging global depression, Sloan wines just offered a second round allocation of their 2005 Cabernet for $360/bottle. If you are a speculator, skip it.

These allocations are shooting closer and closer to the auction price each year. Many of them are already at 80% of the auction price, which to me is "fully priced" since anyone flipping their allocation is clipped for 20% by the auction house.

The current ask on 2005 Sloan is $500/bottle (winebid.com), which includes the auctioneer's premium. A seller can expect $400 -if the lot sells.

Sloan will charge for shipping on top of the $360, and by the time you pay to ship it to the auctioneer, there's no money left in this deal.

It may make you feel better to know that they offered it at $225 to their preferred customers already.

Many wine speculators will be finding their way on to the allocation lists during these difficult times. But they will be offered higher and higher prices. The only reason that I can think of to buy any of these wines now, is to be on the list for the 2007s -which are supposed to be the best vintage ever to come out of CA in 30+years. Buy carefully, if at all. I think when they hit the market in 2010-2011, most 2007s will be held by very weak hands.

How to Match Red Wine with Fish

Smoke it! If you love red wine and want to enjoy it with something healthier than a steak, then cedar plank smoked salmon is the answer.

Cedar planks, once a specialty item, are now available at most supermarkets. Soak the plank in water while the grill heats up, add the salmon, and cook it for about 25 minutes. Soaking the plank is essential for good smoke generation; a dry plank will make your dinner catch on fire. I like to season my salmon with salt, pepper, and a light coating of sugar (1t/lb, approx). The sugar soaks up the smoke and sweetens the salmon's natural fat.

Grill smoked salmon has a full bodied flavor, so you can serve it with Cabernet or Syrah. If you want to match the tobacco notes of an aged Bordeaux, then I recommend using mesquite chunks as your smoke source.

1982 Mouton Rothschild - Auction Prices

I admit, I thought the great wine correction was going to take place in 1Q 2008, and it has taken until now for the data to support the ongoing correction.

The wine market is breaking down, but the data is hidden. My analysis of 1982 Mouton shows that single bottles are off 20% from a year ago, but market averaged data shows no change. The most often cited data averages in all bottles regardless of provenance or owc status. The facts are that an owc of '82 Mouton has stayed the same, because the ultra-rich can still pay $17,000 for a case. Smaller speculators who trade in one and two bottle lots have been getting crushed, and the data is getting buried. When a single bottle sells as lot #1, and case sells as lot#2, the single bottle becomes 1/13th of the "average auction price" -even though it represents 1/2 of all actual sales.

Here are the prices for 1982 Mouton:
2Q '08 = $950 (single bottle), $1450 (x12 for owc)
3Q '07 = $1200(single bottle), $1500 (x12 for owc)

My data includes sales from Sotheby's, Bonham's, Hart Davis Hart, Zachy's, and Acker.

Scarecrow!

Scarecrow from the 2005 vintage is available March 21st-31st at $150/bottle. Buy your entire allocation.

The 2003 vintage received 98 points from RP, the highest score that Parker has given for any inaugural vintage. Released to a lucky few at $100/bottle, the wine was trading at $800 as soon as the Wine Advocate's review was in in the mail. Today, this wine is at least $900.

The 2004 vintage got (only) 95 pts from RP, but the damage from the first year's success could not be undone. The cheapest retailer on wine-searcher.com offers the 2004 Scarecrow at $700, but as with the 2003, there is no shortage of merchants willing to charge $1000.

The 2005 vintage isn't bottled yet, but Parker gave it 94-97 from the barrel. Pre-sales on winecomune.com are the cheapest at $620-$650. A brick-and-mortar wine merchant will charge more. I'm not buying much wine right now, but '05 Scarecrow at $150 gets me reaching for my checkbook.

2000 Chateau Lafite Rothschild Extends Gains, Lafleur Weakens

First growths and other top Bordeaux from the 2000 vintage have been on a tear lately, prompting this blogger to speculate that a wine bubble is here (see earlier posts). Results from Acker Merrall & Condit’s January auction suggest that a top is finally forming, for everything except Lafite. Most wines failed to appreciate over the past 7 months. Latour Cheval Blanc, and Margaux are holding steady at $1000 each, Mouton is still $750, Haut Brion is a little more variable –stuck in a rang of $650-$700 with no discernable trend, Petrus remains at $3600.

Only Lafite continues to climb. Now at $1500, up from $1300 three months ago.

It’s not all good news: Ultra-rare Lafleur sold at Acker’s January Auction for $1815. That’s down from $2000 in the fall of ’07, which itself is down from $2400 from the summer.

Will the bubble reveal itself this quarter?