2011 Sine Qua Non Dark Blossom Allocation

Sine Qua Non's August 2013 allocation is for six Syrah and three Grenache, all named "Dark Blossom".  Buy your entire allocation.

Antonio Galloni gave the Syrah (95-97) points from barrel, and the Grenache (94-96).  Prices have ticked up slightly to $160/bottle.  Don't forget to include shipping and local taxes when calculating your final price.  If you pay 8% local wine tax (California's rate is 8.2%), then your cost is $173.  Shipping will probably cost you about $10/bottle, so your final price to drink these is about $180-$185.

If you want to sell some to pay for the one you drink, then you are probably in for an uphill battle.  If the Wine Advocate confirms the Galloni ratings, then private party sales are probably your best bet - and it may take several years to get your money back.  For example, Sine Qua Non's 2008 Syrah, B-20 got 95 points from the Advocate, and can be purchased today for $220 (wine-searcher).  If you sell through a traditional auction house which takes 20% of all sales, a final price of $222 returns your $185.  A final price of $235 would also cover your cost to ship the wine to the auction house.  A wine-commune pre-arrival offering of Dark Blossom at $285 went unsold.

If the 2011 Sine Qua Non Dark Blossom gets a better Advocate review, like 99 or 100, then higher prices would be expected.  A final auction price of $252 will return $210 to the seller.  Make it $260, if you want to pay for your cost to ship the wine to the auctioneer.  Prices like this are supported by past offerings, such as the 2005 Atlantis series, in which the 100 point Syrah is $260-$300 on the secondary market.

Even if the 2011 Dark Blossom offerings turn out to be "only" 95-96 points, it is still worth it for a wine speculator to buy these and stay on the allocation list.  Sine Qua Non has a strong track record and is a good bet to release more 100 point wines in the future.

Note:  This post was updated on 9/5/2013 to correct errors in the release price.

2008 Sine Qua Non Estate Allocation

The 2008 Sine Qua Non (SQN) Estate allocations have been announced.  They are 3 x Syrah “The Duel” (WA 96-98) and 3 x Grenache “The Duel” (WA 95-98) all sold together for $1320.  Plus, there is a white wine “The Monkey” (WA 92-94), which is a Rhone-style blend of Roussanne, Viognier, and Chardonnay.  Allocations of “The Monkey” range from three to six bottles at $100 each. 

Buy “The Duel”; it’s a no-brainer for both the speculator and the consumer.  Past years of Eleven Confessions Syrah and Grenache sell for $450 and up, and 2008 SQN “The Duel” should be no different.  A speculator could reasonably expect to sell four of these at auction, paying the 20% auction house commission, and let the profits pay for the last two.  As for SQN “The Monkey”, buy it only if you want to drink it.

Followers of the ratings will notice that the barrel sample scores for the 2008 SQN “The Duel” are a couple of points lower than past years.  Don’t worry, it’s the same great wine, just a different critic.  The WA reviewer for the 2008 SQN is Antonio Galloni, not Robert Parker.  Galloni is taking over responsibility the Wine Advocate reviews for California and Washington.  Buy the 2008 SQN Estate bottlings with confidence.

2009 Sine Qua Non Allocation

September 2 is the deadline for reserving your 2009 Sine Qua Non allocation.  This year’s offerings are 6 x 2009 Syrah “The Thrill of …” (RP 96-98) and 6 x 2009 Grenache “Upside Down” (RP 94-96).  Grenache fans will appreciate the increased Grenache offering, which is often about half the Syrah availability.

If you are buying these to drink, the release price of $145 compares favorably with the $250+ typical auction price.

If you are buying these to flip, Parker’s sub 100 point ratings will keep these wines from getting much higher than $250 in the near term.  Auction house fees of 22%, together with shipping fees, plus state tax fees will drive all the profit from re-sale.  A profitless re-sale of Sine Qua Non is perfectly acceptable for speculators who want to remain on the allocation list, saving their dry powder for either a better vintage, or an Eleven Confessions offering.  Bottom line: buy your entire allocation.

Next of Kyn - a Wine for Collectors, not Speculators

The newest cult offering from Manfred Kankl, NEXT of KYN, was recently offered at $1100 for 3 bottles plus a magnum. The debut vintage was reviewed at 94-96 by Robert Parker, while the wine was still in the barrel. Here’s why I passed.

The cost is $220/bottle and $440/magnum before tax, shipping, and the inevitable auction house fees when you re-sell. Tax varies by state, but I’ll guess 7%, or $77 for our purposes. Shipping to your house and then to the auction house will cost $30, if you wait until it is cool enough for ground transportation to be safe. So the cost to get the wine to the auction house for sale is $241. Auction house fees run 12% to 21%, plus 1% insurance. So, the minimum reasonable break-even price for flipping NEXT of KYN is 13% higher than $241, or $272/bottle.

Now let’s look at the competition:

2006 Sine Qua Non Raven Series Syrah (RP 96) retails for $200
2007 Sine Qua Non Labels Syrah (RP 95-98) retails for $225
(prices on wine-searcher as of August 4, 2010)

The same winemaker has higher scoring wines for much cheaper. If you really want NEXT of KYN, just wait a year and buy it at retail. At least you won’t get stuck with the magnum.

Sine Qua Non The Pontiff

Getting an allocation from an exclusive winery, such as Sine Qua Non (SQN), can be worth the wait, but do you have to buy everything they offer?

As a wine speculator, what you do want from SQN is Syrah and Grenache from the Eleven Confessions vineyard. If you are offered something else, do you take it? In the case of the 2008 The Pontiff (rose), my suggestion is to skip it, or sell it. Unlike their Syrah and Grenache, the SQN white and rose wines are just not buy-and-hold material.

The question remains, are allocations of the more desirable wines larger for the customers that buy all the other stuff? Fortunately, with Sine Qua Non at least, speculators don't need to worry too much about it. Even in this economy, Manfred Krankl's latest rose can be flipped without too much of a loss (current price $100, release price, $79). You'll lose money on shipping, but you'll break even on the bottle.