2009 Quilceda Creek Allocation

The 2009 Quilceda Creek Cabernet Sauvignon is available January 9^th for $135/bottle.  Parker gave this wine (99-100) from the barrel.  Buy your entire allocation. 

The 2009 Quilceda Creek Cabernet Sauvignon is expected to cost more on the secondary market.  All Quilceda Creek Cabernet Sauvignon from 2002-2009 received either 99 or 100 points.  The cheapest wine-searcher price for the 99 point wines (2008, 2006, and 2004) is $180 for 2008 and 2006, and $200 for the 2004.  The 100 pointers from 2005 and 2007 cannot be obtained for less than $220.  Patient buyers of the 100 point 2002 and 2003 vintages can close the deal for about $250. If you are buying 2009s to drink, buy them now.

If you are buying to flip, consider that you will pay for shipping – both to you and then to the auction house, plus sales tax and auction premium.  A $135 bottle will break even if sold for $185 (including buyer’s premium).  This is still worth it, if the sale will allow you to stay on the list.  If you can afford to hold the wine for about 5 years, so much the better.

2007 Quilceda Creek Allocation

The 2007 Quilceda Creek allocation offerings are in. The cabernet in 750 mL format is $125, and $275 in magnum. Buy your entire allocation.

Unlike Sloan and Screaming Eagle, Quilceda Creek has resisted the urge to raise its prices in recent years. In addition, the 2007 vintage as a whole is a good bet for Washington state. The Wine Advocate gave the whole region a 92 score for that year. While the 2007 Quilceda Creek is still unrated by the Advocate, over the last 5 years this winery has turned out a string of high scoring cabernets. Three of the last five Quilceda Creeks earned 100 points, and the other two got 99.

Owners of the 2002-2006 vintages have done well in the marketplace. Even in this difficult market, the 2002 and 2003 are well north of $200 at auction, with average prices around $275 each (wineprices). Less auction data is available for the 2004, 2005, and 2006, but retail customers can expect to pay $225, $299, and $169 respectively for these three (wine-searcher). I expect auction prices to be about 20% less than the cheapest retail.

Is there risk? Of course. The 2001 Quilceda Creek got only 98 points from the Advocate, and it trades at $177 (wineprices), and that is a recent breakout to the upside. In 2006, it was barely over $100 on the secondary market. As pricing for the 2006 and the 2001 suggest, you need both a 99+ score, and a few years of cellaring time to double your money.

2005 Quilceda Creek Allocation - What to Buy

Orders for the 2005 Quilceda Creek are due by January 7th. Recent years have been very favorable to Quilceda Creek, with the following advocate scores: 2001, 98 pts; 2002 and 2003, 100 pts, 2004, 99 pts. If you still haven't decided what (if any) of it you want, here's my analysis. The magnum of Cabernet at $253 is a screaming buy. Current auction ranges of the '01, '02, '03, and '04 magnums are $300-$500, $650-$850, $650-$950, and $300-$450 respectively. Someone pre-sold their '05 cabernet magnum on winecommune for $420 recently. The risk in the '05 Quilceda Creeks comes from the fact that they are not rated yet. You can hope for a 100 point score from the Wine Advocate, or sell yours on winecommune before the wine is reviewed. If you only buy one part of your allocation, it should be the cabernet magnum.

The cabernet 750 ml bottles are compelling as well, although they appear to offer less upside potential. Current auction ranges of the '01, '02, '03, and '04 in regular bottles are $150-$250, $250-$280, $220-$280, and $140-$315 respectively. The '05 cabernet in regular bottle recently pre-sold on winecommune for $166. At $115 (allocation price) I bought it, but I like the magnum better. Both offerings appear to be only barely prifitable at 98 pts. A 100 point score would make the magnum saleable at 260% of its release price, while the regular bottles would apear to be worth about 190% of their release price.

The merlot, at $75, is probably cheaper than it would be on the secondary market, but I just don't see the same potential as with their cabs. I didn't buy it.

Do I still think the wine market is overpriced? Yes, at the high end -I'm still predicting drops in '08 for DRC, Petrus, and anything that can't be bought new for $2000. But the deep pocketed consumers won't quit the wine game altogether. They'll be drinking the more "affordable" Quilceda Creeks instead.